can we all just take it down a notch

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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby spree#8 » August 9, 2018, 1:41 pm

Huh? Cherrypicked stats? :? TS% is the one and only stat that tells you about efficiency when it comes to scoring, all other percentages just tell you about how that efficiency came by (for example you can negate a bad 3 point percentage with a great 2 point one). So there is nothing cherrypicked by me and you should know that.

All I'm saying is that many people throw stats around without putting them in the correct context. If you do with THJ, you see that his production line per 36 minutes is at Houston's level and his efficiency over his first 5 seasons too. So instead of shitting on the guy at every opportunity, why not be excited to see whether THJ gives us a very solid two-guard going forward? He sure looks on his way there.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby taowave » August 9, 2018, 1:54 pm

Th Jr sure is polarizing....
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby H20Knick » August 9, 2018, 2:15 pm

spree#8 wrote:Huh? Cherrypicked stats? :? TS% is the one and only stat that tells you about efficiency when it comes to scoring, all other percentages just tell you about how that efficiency came by (for example you can negate a bad 3 point percentage with a great 2 point one). So there is nothing cherrypicked by me and you should know that.


I agree. And THJ's TS% are pedestrian at best, as I presented elsewhere.

spree#8 wrote:All I'm saying is that many people throw stats around without putting them in the correct context. If you do with THJ, you see that his production line per 36 minutes is at Houston's level and his efficiency over his first 5 seasons too. So instead of shitting on the guy at every opportunity, why not be excited to see whether THJ gives us a very solid two-guard going forward? He sure looks on his way there.


All I know is
THJ was 51st of 69 by TS% of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.
THJ was 40th of 69 in VORP of all G/G-F that started 30 games last season.
THJ was 54th of 69 in defensive winshares of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.
THJ was 44th of 69 in offensive winshares of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.
THJ was 44th of 69 in offensive rating of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.
THJ was 58th of 69 in defensive rating of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.
THJ was 50th of 69 in assists per game of all G/G-F that started 30 games and played 50 games last season.

You will say last year was an outlier. I'll say it was the only dataset we have not mired in the fact that he was a neophyte or playing for Atlanta (and as a 6th man, mind you).

I don't see anything here that makes me feel like we have a very solid two-guard going forward. Comparing him to a guy who played 18 years ago isn't going to change that for me.


I'm glad you have optimism for one of our players, but i've become bitter and jaded in my fandom. We'll know better what we can expect from THJ after next season. I'm always willing to eat crow if it means the knicks are better off.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby spree#8 » August 9, 2018, 2:30 pm

See, that's what I mean with context. You use a) just one season and b) make lists that don't tell us much, like saying in another post that his TS% was below the one of Tim Thomas (without saying that the season of Thomas you compared his one with was actually a very efficient one of Tiny Tim).

At face value .533 is not terrible. In context, that is OK. Not good, not great, but OK. His career true shooting percentage (.544) in context is fine. Where we want to get him going forward is at .55 or above (something he already did 3 times in five years). .55 would be good, anything above .56 is very good. It is also important to look at what these tiny differences even mean: Tim's career three point percentage already would've gotten him above a TS% of .55 last year. BTW: His career 3 point percentage makes just a difference of 11 made threes last season. Are we mad because of 11 misses? So is it unreasonable to expect a reverse to his mean? I, as one who loves stats, says no. In fact it is to be expected.

Look, what I find annoying is when people say "he is turrible" without seemingly going the mile to take a look what turrible is. And I know you as a guy that loves stats too, that's why I am a little irritated when you just throw stats around like this.

To clarify: you can be 50th of 50 on a list, but if everyone above is doing great, you might not be doing bad.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby H20Knick » August 9, 2018, 3:03 pm

spree#8 wrote:See, that's what I mean with context. You use a) just one season and b) make lists that don't tell us much, like saying in another post that his TS% was below the one of Tim Thomas (without saying that the season of Thomas you compared his one with was actually a very efficient one of Tiny Tim).

At face value .533 is not terrible. In context, that is OK. Not good, not great, but OK. His career true shooting percentage (.544) in context is fine. Where we want to get him going forward is at .55 or above (something he already did 3 times in five years). .55 would be good, anything above .56 is very good. It is also important to look at what these tiny differences even mean: Tim's career three point percentage already would've gotten him above a TS% of .55 last year. BTW: His career 3 point percentage makes just a difference of 11 made threes last season. Are we mad because of 11 misses? So is it unreasonable to expect a reverse to his mean? I, as one who loves stats, says no. In fact it is to be expected.

Look, what I find annoying is when people say "he is turrible" without seemingly going the mile to take a look what turrible is. And I know you as a guy that loves stats too, that's why I am a little irritated when you just throw stats around like this.


a) i use the only season that resembles his current situation on this team.
b) i just picked a myriad of different analytical stats to show that you actually have to TRY hard to find one where he's even average (like.. i don't know... 2pt% and TOV%??)... and Tiny Tim was capable of being efficient apparently. Doesn't mean that we were better off with him buildling a team with him in the starting lineup.

Two of THJ's 3 seasons with a TS% above .55 were in Atlanta where he came off the bench. I already said he'd be better if he came off the bench. The 3rd of those seasons was when he was a rookie playing on a team where he was 7th in usage, playing on a team that had just been 2nd in the conference and alongside a still good Carmelo.

Year 1: Starts 1/81 games, 6th in FGA/G, 7th in usage... TS% .554.
Year 2: Starts 30/70 games, 6th in FGA/G, 5th in usage... TS% .512.
Year 3: Starts 1/51 games, 7th in FGA/G, 8th in usage... TS% .563.
Year 4: Starts 30/79 games, 3rd in FGA/G, 4th in usage... TS% .568.
Year 5: Starts 54/57 games, 2nd in FGA/G, 5th in usage... TS% .533.

So what you're saying is that he's never been a starter or one the best 2 guys on the team and done better than .55. So which year is the fluke season here? What am I looking at and saying "THJ will be efficient" if I actually finish the sentence with "in the role that he is currently assigned". You're just saying he can be efficient off the bench. I already said that was probably the case. Moreover, you're ignoring the fact that scoring is the only thing he has going for him. We're having a debate over whether or not he's good at the one thing he's even respectable at and ignoring the fact that he's a poor defender and a poor playmaker for others. The last season, the one I use the data for, is the only season that compares to the role you want to play him in, and that's why it's the best comparison to make.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby spree#8 » August 9, 2018, 3:13 pm

:? Have the last word for now. As I said, I'm not interested in a long, unnecessary discussion, with lots of stats presented where we won't agree on how to read them. That's no fun and posting here should be about fun, no? So let's wait until we have actual games to talk about next season. For now I would say that we see very different players in the same man and are both pretty confident on how it'll play out going forward.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby Don Che » August 9, 2018, 4:01 pm

no thread is safe from a Tim debate lol
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby H20Knick » August 9, 2018, 5:29 pm

spree#8 wrote::? Have the last word for now. As I said, I'm not interested in a long, unnecessary discussion, with lots of stats presented where we won't agree on how to read them. That's no fun and posting here should be about fun, no? So let's wait until we have actual games to talk about next season. For now I would say that we see very different players in the same man and are both pretty confident on how it'll play out going forward.


Agreed!
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby gradyandrew » August 9, 2018, 7:37 pm

H20Knick wrote:what a fucking tool. the guy is a poor man's JR Smith.


Where are you coming from with this comparison? Is this based on efficiency?

It seems to me that in terms of attitude these guys couldn't be any more different. I love JR, but he clearly seems to play the game for himself and wants to have fun out there. THJ looks angry when he's injured on the bench, the team is up by 10 and gets a bad foul call. Sometimes I don't think THJ even knows how to smile on the court.
It’s not the frustration of the fans of us losing, they want to see the dog, they want to see that fight, they want to see that hunger inside of you. - THJ
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby Koopa Troopa » August 10, 2018, 5:00 pm

Tim just needs more mental toughness and some good coaching. Hornacek IMO failed Hardaway more than any other player on the team.
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Re: can we all just take it down a notch

Postby Don Che » August 10, 2018, 5:03 pm

funny that he failed him and gave him the longest leash a coach would EVER allow

tim and kanter are big Jeff guys but they both had career years.
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